unemployment trends in central oregon
In the 1990s, Central Oregon's unemployment rate was higher than Oregon's and the nation's. From 2003 to 2007, a period of rapid expansion in the Central Oregon region, the tri-county unemployment rate tracked below the state average. That trend was reversed in 2008 and 2009, as Oregon's unemployment rate surpassed the nation's and Central Oregon's unemployment rate has tracked several percentage points higher than Oregon's rate.
Tri County Unemployment Rates
(rates are not seasonally adjusted, typically
resulting in higher rates than when adjusted) |
| Year |
Tri County
Region
(weighted by
labor force) |
Oregon |
U.S. |
| 1995 |
6.7% |
4.9% |
5.6% |
| 1996 |
8.3% |
5.6% |
5.4% |
| 1997 |
7.7% |
5.6% |
4.9% |
| 1998 |
7.5% |
5.7% |
4.5% |
| 1999 |
6.4% |
5.5% |
4.2% |
| 2000 |
5.6% |
5.1% |
4.0% |
| 2001 |
6.7% |
6.4% |
4.7% |
| 2002 |
7.7% |
7.6% |
5.8% |
| 2003 |
7.8% |
8.1% |
6.0% |
| 2004 |
6.9% |
7.3% |
5.5% |
| 2005 |
5.6% |
6.1% |
5.1% |
| 2006 |
4.9% |
5.4% |
4.7% |
| 2007 |
5.3% |
5.2% |
4.6% |
| 2008 |
8.3% |
6.4% |
5.8% |
| 2009 - Jan |
15.1% |
10.7% |
8.5% |
| 2009 - Feb |
16.8% |
11.9% |
8.9% |
| 2009 - Mar |
17.4% |
12.7% |
9.0% |
| 2009 - Apr |
15.7% |
11.9% |
8.6% |
| 2009 - May |
15.2% |
11.9% |
9.1% |
| 2009 - June |
15.3% |
11.9% |
9.7% |
| 2009 - July |
14.1% |
11.7% |
9.7% |
| 2009 - Aug |
14.3% |
11.7% |
9.6% |
| 2009 - Sept |
13.7% |
10.8% |
9.5% |
| 2009 - Oct |
13.8% |
10.7% |
9.5% |
Source: Oregon Employment Department, last updated November 2009
It's important to understand that the civilian labor force in Central Oregon has grown significantly, even at a moderated rate of 3% during the first ten months of 2008. In January 2008, the region had 102,893 workers in the labor force and closed December 2008 with 107,470 workers -- more than 4,500 more in the labor force. The increased civilian labor force reflects continued in-migration and job creation, albeit at a slower pace, in Central Oregon.
Unemployment Rates by County
All three counties in Central Orego have unemployment rates above Oregon's and the nation's. Historically, Crook and Jefferson Counties have had higher unemployment rates than Deschutes County, given less diverse economies and more reliance on wood products, manufacturing, and agriculture. Below we show the unemployment rate (not adjusted for seasonality) by county on a recent basis.
Unemployment Rates in the Tri County Region
(rates are not seasonally adjusted,
resulting in higher rates than when adjusted) |
| County |
2000 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009
Jan |
2009
Feb |
2009
Mar |
2009
Apr |
2009
May |
2009
June |
2009
July |
2009
Aug |
2009
Sept |
2009
Oct |
| Crook |
8.4 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
14.0 |
18.2 |
20.7 |
21.4 |
19.3 |
18.1 |
20.6 |
16.8 |
16.9 |
16.1 |
16.0 |
| Deschutes |
5.3 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
11.3 |
14.6 |
16.1 |
16.7 |
15.3 |
14.9 |
14.8 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
13.5 |
13.6 |
| Jefferson |
5.7 |
6.1 |
5.7 |
6.8 |
13.3 |
16.2 |
18.9 |
19.2 |
16.3 |
14.6 |
14.3 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
| Oregon |
5.1 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
8.8 |
10.7 |
11.9 |
12.7 |
11.9 |
11.9 |
11.9 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
| U.S. |
4.0 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
7.1 |
8.5 |
8.9 |
9.0 |
8.6 |
9.1 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
Source for above information: Oregon Employment Department; last updated November 2009
Unemployment relative to job growth
Given it's strong in-migration from high cost metro areas, California in particular, Central Oregon has historically had difficulties immediately absorbing newcomers into the job market, reflecting population growth outpacing job growth. Many of the newcomers lend their talents to the area's strong base of entrepreneurial activity. As Central Oregon's population continues to expand, employers will continue to find a larger labor pool of applicants vying for available jobs. More importantly, because many of the “unemployed” have actually left previous employment elsewhere to move to the region, they have more work experience and generally higher skill levels. For more information, visit Oregon Employment Department website, www.olmis.org.
Central Oregon continues to outpace most other regions in the state in employment creation, including Portland and Willamette Valley metro areas. In 2007, job growth slowed to about 2.5% -- cooling from the red hot growth years of 2004 and 2005 and returning to a pattern more consistent with 2002 and 2003. All private sectors of the economy, with the exception of manufacturing, have more jobs than in 2006.
Also in the Employment section, you may be interested in Central Oregon
Top 50 Employers,
employment by sector,
income and wages, and
job growth projections from Oregon Employment Department.
In the Publications section, EDCO Profiles and Data - Demographic, Consumer Expenditure, and Business/Workforce from Oregon Prospector may be helpful.